The Finnish variant for Ukraine? Let’s look at the counterexamples in Poland, Czech, Baltics…

The Finnish variant for Ukraine? Let’s look at the counterexamples in Poland, Czech, Baltics…

In the search for an end to the war in Ukraine, the term Finlandization has re-emerged.

The isolationist Quincy Institute wrote an article praising Finlandization as a model for Ukraine in 2024. Bloomberg ran a similar piece last week. More importantly, the Russian press writes frequently and positively about this idea. If you haven’t heard of Finlandization, expect to see it appearing in press and speeches from those who echo Moscow.

Let’s define Finlandization and see if this might bring a stop the bloodshed and end the War for Ukrainian Sovereignty.

Like Ukraine, Finland is an independent nation and state with a border with Russia. Like Ukraine, Finland was brutally invaded by Russia. In the case of the Finns in 1939, when the Soviet Union allied with Nazi Germany and launched attacks on Finland, as well as several other independent European countries.

The Soviets expected to reach Helsinki in a few days, but Finland put up fierce resistance to the invading Soviet Army. The Soviets suffered nearly 200,000 casualties as they were held to a standstill with thousands of Finns also dying. In March 1940, Finland signed an armistice with the Soviet Union and ceded large swathes of territory to the invader.

The Finlandization refers to the fragile peace that emerged after a Peace treaty was signed. Finland ceded large swathes of territory to Russia, but Finland retained its independence. Despite persistent Russian and Soviet meddling, Finland remained a democracy though the Soviets forced a policy of neutrality on Finland. The country did not participate in the Marshall Plan, the EU nor join NATO.

Finland has thrived since WW2. It is a rich, democratic country which normally ranks at the top of the charts for life satisfaction and happiness.

That is the promise of Finlandization for Ukraine: cede territory, no reparations for war crimes or damage, defer to Russia in foreign policy, no Alliances with the West and Ukraine will prosper as Finland did.

Ukrainians would rejoice at the Finnish reality, a stable, peaceful, democratic country. Ukraine has even stated its willingness to cede territory for peace.

It is worth asking if Finland is the general rule for peace treaties with Russia or the sole exception?

 Poland has a different experience with Russian peace deals.

In 1945, Poland ceded its Eastern territories to the Soviet Union. Free elections were promised. Instead, the NKVD hunted down and killed the political opposition as well as surviving members of the Polish Underground Army. A Soviet General was installed as the Polish Defense Minister and controlled the Security forces. The Soviet Communist regime ruled with an iron hand until 1989.

Hungary also reached an agreement with the Soviet Union after WW2.Hungary ceded territory but was promised freedom. A Communist regime was installed and oversaw the Hungarian military. The Soviet Union re-invaded in 1956 to enforce its will on Hungary. Hungary was finally liberated from the Soviets in 1989.

East Germany was also supposed to be a neutral state. The Soviets took over. The Soviets re-invaded in 1953 to ensure dominance for the next several decades.

A similar story Czechoslovakia, which was re-invaded in 1968 and put under Soviet rule. As well as Bulgaria and Romania.

The Baltic States are even starker example. A treaty was signed on October 6, 1939, with the Soviet Union. By June 1940, the Soviets changed their mind and occupied the 3 nations. It is estimated that 10% of the population was deported to Siberia. In 1944, the Baltic States were forcibly annexed into the Soviet Union ending their independence for five decades.

Finland is a success story. The other 9 countries had a different experience from the Russian Peace Plans. It led to Russian occupation, deportations and war crimes against civilians.

We don’t have to guess how Russia will react to a neutral Ukraine with limited military capabilities.  Russia already showed Ukraine what it will do from the day Putin became President.

Ukrainian neutrality was enshrined in law from 1991. Ukraine was neutral in alliances and had no relations with NATO. The Ukrainian military was underfunded and disorganized.

Putin ascended to the Russian Presidency on January 1, 2000. From that moment, he worked to destroy Ukrainian Sovereignty.

Russia repeatedly violated the Ukrainian border. In 2003, Russia initiated the the Tula Island incident was meant to limit Ukraine’s access to the Azov Sea. Russia infiltrated the Ukrainian government with spies – many of whom fled to Russia in February 2022.

Even worse, Russia tried to assassinate a Ukrainian Presidential candidate, Viktor Yushchenko in 2004 and helped commit election fraud in Ukraine.

Russia secretly taped the Ukrainian President and released the Omelchenko tape as well as forged the Kolchuga documents to rupture Ukrainian relations with America. These were orchestrated by Derkach, a Russian Spy and head of SBU, who fled to Russia when the invasion failed in 2022. (He also personally signed my persona non grata order on the eve of Secretary of State Albright’s visit to Kyiv in 2000.)

This attack on Ukrainian Sovereignty culminated with the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of the eastern region of Ukraine in 2015.

Immediately after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Finland renounced Finlandization and neutrality and applied for membership to NATO. The WSJ highlighted how Finland now spends 3% of GDP on defense and Finland, with a 1,340 km border with Russia, became a full member of NATO. Finnish President Alexander Stubb is outspoken on the need for Europe to confront Russian aggression.

That is the Finnish example that Ukraine should follow.

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