Simple Principles for Negotiating the End to the War for Ukrainian Sovereignty

Rule #1: Don’t repeat the mistakes of Minsk-1 and the Obama Adminstration.

President Trump has put renewed focus on negotiating an end to the fighting in Ukraine. Over the past week, President Trump has spoken to President Putin of Russia, who initiated the War for Ukrainian Sovereignty first by invading Crimea in 2014, then Donbas, then the full-scale invasion in 2022.

Defense Secretary Hegseth spoke in Munich about the war and outlined a position, including no NATO accession for Ukraine and no US troops on the ground and Ukraine needing to cede territory. The next day, Vice President Vance gave an interview to the WSJ which spoke about the need for Ukraine’s “sovereign independence” and left the options of sanctions and US troops in Ukraine “on the table.” Throughout this, Russia has continued to bomb Ukrainian civilians and the Chernobyl nuclear plant.

Though they highlighted different angles, neither VP Vance nor Def Sec Hegseth broke new ground on US policy towards Ukraine. NATO accession was never part of President Biden’s policy towards Ukraine nor does America have the ability to unilaterally grant NATO membership to Ukraine or any country. In terms of territory, even President Zelensky has acknowledged the need to stop fighting for territory in return for ending the bombing of civilians.

While any potential deal to end the fighting will revolve around Security, Territory and Guarantees, the first principle of any deal must be “No discussion about Ukraine without Ukraine.

In the aftermath of the Russian seizure of Crimea and invasion of Donbas, President Obama followed the path of trying to negotiate directly with President Putin without Ukrainian participation. This followed on the heels of Secretary of State Clinton’s disastrous “Reset of Russian policy” in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, in an effort to make a clean break from the Bush Administration.

The result was the Minsk 1 agreement, which undermined Ukrainian Sovereignty, froze the battlelines and failed to provide any long-term security. President Obama accepted Putin’s word without any guarantees and hoped for the best.

Russia immediately violated the agreement and continued its slaughter of Ukrainian civilians.

If the goal is long-term peace, Ukraine needs to be involved at every stage in the negotiations. No permanent solution will emerge if Ukraine does not have a seat at the table and its security concerns are not heard.

While most of the discussion around a potential cease fire is focused on territory, the more important question for long-term stability is Security. What guarantees will Ukraine have to ensure Russia does not rearm and relaunch the attack when its economy is stronger?

NATO is one option for security, but not the only one. Even if NATO was to be considered, accession to NATO is a multi-year process requiring consent from 31 members. The applications of Finland and Sweden took over 18 months, due to differing objections from individual countries.

The Budapest Memorandum is a testament to a failed security guarantee for Ukraine. Whereas the US alliances with South Korea, Japan and Saudi Arabia are examples of strong, functioning guarantees in the face of belligerent neighbors.

The Weimar+ Statement of the UK, Germany, France, Poland, Italy and Spain is an outline of a European vision of a security guarantee for Ukraine.

American Ukraine PAC supports any policy which incorporates a Security for Ukraine. This remains a challenge which will involve many countries and extended meetings to ensure the guarantee will hold and restrain Russia today and tomorrow.

As mentioned earlier, President Zelensky has acknowledged a willingness to delay demands over territory in the immediate term. Unfortunately, President Putin has not. In fact, he still demands Ukraine cede territory to Russia that Russia does not occupy.

Long-term peace is rarely achieved in one day. Any negotiations will take extended time and involve many partners. As a first step, President Trump should demand a stopping of the bombing of Ukrainian civilians and the return of the trafficked Ukrainian children.

So long as Russian missiles and drones are attacking Ukrainian cities and Ukrainian children are being held hostage, President Trump will be repeating the mistakes of President Obama in 2015.