Lessons for Ukraine from Israel
There was an extended interview in the WSJ with PM Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Saturday.
While each country’s war is unique, there are some similarities that are worth noting. Both are fighting wars for national survival. Both countries are fighting alone, outside of trans-national alliances. Both had a supportive, but, at times contentious relationship with the Biden Administration. Both are feeling pressure from outside forces for a ceasefire, while needing to ensure security. Of course, both countries are facing enemies with a history of breaking treaties and ceasefires.
“The more Americans, international bodies and liberal Israeli pressed Mr Netanyahu to fold, the less inclined Hamas became to cut a second hostage deal”.
This dynamic is in play in Ukraine also. American pressure on Ukraine to negotiate will only embolden Russia and make peace a more distant.
The Americans said to me, if you go into Rafah, you’re on your own, and we’re not going to send the critical arms, which is tough to hear,”…”But if we don’t go into Rafah, we can’t exist as a sovereign state. We’d become a vassal state and we won’t survive. The questions of arms will fix itself, but the question of independence will not. That’s the end of Israel.”
Similarly, Ukraine does not want to go alone, much less break from America. But, it is Ukraine’s responsibility to guarantee Ukraine’s security, not America’s. America’s top priority is peace. Ukraine’s is survival.
A bad deal will mark the end of Ukrainian independence.
Many senior Israeli officials argued that Israel should make concessions to Hamas to quiet Hezbollah and avoid escalation in Lebanon. Mr Netanyahu summarizes their position: “We’re going to get a cease-fire anyway in the North- either we can get it after the fighting or before the fighting, and it’s going to be the same deal. So, why not skip the fighting?”
He rejected the premise: “It makes a hell of a difference whether we make the cease-fire after we cut Hezbollah down to size or after we leave it intact.” Hezbollah couldn’t be left holding a Sword of Democles above Israel’s head.”
Battlefield positions will make a massive difference in any negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The invasion of Kursk substantially improved Ukraine’s bargaining position. Further attacks which show Russia’s weakness will help Ukraine in negotiations.
The US opposed any move to take the fight to Hezbollah. “I said we should do it in October… One of the reasons is October is before November.” Who knew what would happen after the US election?
The hostage deal Mr Netanyahu envisages is a partial one in exchange for a pause in the fighting. I am not going to agree to end the war before we remove Hamas.”
A definitive peace is a long-term project. Ukraine could benefit from an immediate pause in the fighting and pressure on Russia to stop bombing Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. If the Trump Administration can bring that in the short-term, Ukraine would benefit, but it still needs to remain focused on long-term guarantees of security.
“I was arguing for “total victory”, he says, “and they said there’s no such thing as victory.” You don’t hear that much anymore, now that Israel and its leader seem to have emerged on top.”
Many are doubting Ukraine’s chances for victory, it is vital for President Zelensky to keep that goal front and center.
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